A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
