Just eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery berated him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
According to Opta, in only two games have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have strung together 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – but right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
