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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|